Balance on the Board
“When I think about the success I’ve had in my last two elections, I am struck by the critical nature Chris Leavitt and the team at Red Maverick Media played in those victories. I would not be a Supervisor today without the hard work of the Maverick team. From the dedication of time, knowledge and resources in putting together the right plan to providing accountability and strategic leadership in executing that plan; Chris and his team ran a tight ship with professionalism and efficiency.
I wouldn’t put my faith in anyone else to ensure I can continue serving the residents of Fairfax County.”
– Supervisor Pat Herrity
The Blue Challenge
Supervisor Pat Herrity was seeking his 5th term on the Fairfax County Board in the Springfield District. Pat has been a client of Red Maverick since 2019 when he took on a harsh environment and a district that statewide and federal Republicans had lost by over 20% of the vote. In 2019, the team pulled off a 500-vote win for Pat but knew 2023 would be an even more significant challenge.
Fairfax County has 46 elected positions; of the 46, there is 1 Republican since the 2019 election: Supervisor Herrity. With that being the reality, Democrats throughout the County devised a plan during redistricting and gerrymandered Pat’s district to eliminate precincts where he had strong name ID and constituent services and make it more Democrat. To consider how difficult this challenge would be, look at the 2020 and 2021 elections for President and Governor Youngkin’s performance in Springfield.
The challenge had been set, and the team knew that re-electing Pat to a 5th term would require a plan that capitalized on Pat’s record, incumbency, and early cash advantage. Additionally, since 2019, the election law and process changed, including:
- No excuse early voting.
- Expanded in-person voting locations and hours.
- Permanent absentee voters.
- Same day registration and voting.
The Red Solution
On day one, we knew there were three keys to ensure we had a chance.
1: Develop a message that resonated with Republicans, Swings, and Democrats.
2: Raise the resources required to execute the plan.
3: Deploy a data-driven strategy that relies on field and aggressive targeting through mail, digital, text, and phones.
By all accounts, all three keys were met and exceeded. Below is a breakdown of the strategy and execution of the three keys above.
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Develop a message that resonated with Republicans, Swings, and Democrats.
Starting from mid fall, early winter of 2022, we began frequent discussions with Pat and his team to ensure that any messaging he was pushing from the official side was in alignment with the messages we believed would eventually resonate with voters in September of 2023.
From there, we began to gather Pat’s accomplishments around the district to incorporate into an eventual survey to test their effectiveness. Further, we commissioned a team to provide opposition research on all of Pat’s potential opponents who were running in the Democrat primary.
When we knew who Pat’s opponent would be, we gave the greenlight to 1892, our polling team, to give a sense of where we were in the district with Pat’s opponent and tested both positive and negative messages. The results of that poll dictated our message for the remainder of the campaign.
We were relentless in our dedication to the poll tested messages both in our positive and negative messaging. And we personalized our message to Republicans, swings, and Democrats depending on the results of the poll.
We also commissioned i360 to execute a modeling project of the district to be able to coordinate our messaging with relevant propensity and affinity groups of voters. We had 1892 run their polling up against the i360 model to ensure targeted messaging to each voter.
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Raise the resources required to execute the plan.
Pat and his team nailed and exceeded their fundraising goals early on. That allowed us to make early investments in voter contacts that clearly paid off. Historically, Republicans have gotten beat in both early voting both in-person and by mail. Because of Pat’s early fundraising prowess and the plan we put in place to start spending early, Pat won early voting. We won in person early vote by 20% and stayed competitive with early voting by mail in a R +19 district.
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Have a data driven strategy that relies on field and aggressive targeting through mail, digital, text, and phones.
Elaborated on in a previous key description, the benchmark poll we did informed our efforts for our paid, field, and other unpaid voter contact plans. Television was out of the question given the cost of being in the D.C. DMA so we turned to other paid efforts including OTT / CTV, programmatic, mail, texting, and live calls.
Early and Mail in voting are traditionally places where the Democrats build a wall that we needed to overcome on Election Day. Because of the challenges presented by Pat’s district, we knew we’d need to stop the blue wall from being built. Early investment in voter contact and paid efforts not only pushed Republicans to vote early, but enabled Pat to define himself to early and absentee swing voters, before the Democrats had an opportunity to. This included the new permanent absentee voters that we know would be getting a ballot early in the process without even requesting one. Pat ran over 13% ahead of the General Assembly Republican candidates in early voting, and nearly 15% in mail in votes. When compared to the top 5 Senate races, Supervisor Herrity averaged an overperformance of about 8% in Early Voting and 8% in mail-in ballots – helping to provide the decisive margin that enabled him to succeed despite tough losses in mathematically more favorable districts. While the Senate Districts were all within a 6% margin in the 2021 election, it’s important to remember that Youngkin lost the new Springfield district by over 20%. Programs like this are key in helping high quality candidates overcome harsh mathematical odds.
Digital
In the fiercely competitive political landscape of Fairfax County, we harnessed the power of cutting-edge digital strategy. Recognizing the exorbitant costs and diminishing returns of traditional cable and broadcast television, especially within the pricey Washington, D.C. market, we pivoted to a more innovative, cost-effective approach.
Central to this strategy was an intensive focus on Over-the-Top (OTT) and Connected TV (CTV) advertising. This allowed for unparalleled precision in voter targeting, particularly focusing on moderate Democrats and independents – key demographics for the campaign. Through OTT/CTV, we delivered finely-tuned messages that resonated deeply with individual voters, ensuring that the campaign’s messaging was not just heard but felt.
This digital-first strategy was complemented by a robust presence across various online platforms. We extensively utilized Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Google Search, and programmatic display ads. This multi-platform approach ensured that no matter where potential voters spent their online time, they would encounter our message.
Equally important was the tone and content of the campaign. We chose to run a completely positive campaign. It focused on Pat’s strong record of bipartisan, commonsense leadership. This positive approach not only differentiated Pat’s from the usual political rhetoric but also resonated with voters tired of divisive politics.
By smartly investing in digital platforms, targeting key demographics with precision, and maintaining a positive campaign message, the Herrity campaign not only navigated the challenges of a competitive district but also set a new standard for local political campaigns in the digital age.
Our mail plan consisted of 15 pieces total, with a few divided up into locally targeted pieces. As has been previously mentioned, Pat and his team met and exceeded their fundraising goals, so we were able to cast a wide net in the mailbox. There were about 11,000 likely voting Republicans – split between a mixture of mid propensity and high propensity voters. We hit this entire universe five times in the mailbox, with a mixture of messaging ranging from Pat’s sole Republican vote on the Board to cost of living to taxes.
Among left-leaning voters, we had a universe of about 9,500 soft Democrats who we targeted as our reachable audience. Based on vote goal projections, we needed to be at about 8% of the Democrats voting. This whole universe of soft Democrats received one piece of mail and a subset universe of 50+ aged Democrats received an additional two pieces. A turning point, messaging wise, was Pat’s endorsement by the Washington Post Editorial Board. As soon as we received word of the endorsement, we updated all digital creative immediately to highlight the endorsement and also updated any remaining relevant mail pieces to include the Post endorsement.
Field
The Herrity Reelection field program launched in late January. The beginning phase of the field program focused on collecting petition signatures to get Pat’s name back on the ballot in 2023. Simultaneously, the field program was also in the beginning stages of canvassing the district to get an introductory feel of the political climate we were facing. We knocked our first universe 1.5 times with an 18-20% response rate and called through the universe 3 times with a 1-2% response rate.
Once in the second phase of the field program, during the Spring and Summer, our intern team exploded with kids out of school looking for Summer internships and an opportunity to learn about campaigns. In less than a month, from April to June, our intern team grew from 3 interns to 20 by recruiting in every high school and college around, pushing through all of our communications, and even recruiting people at the doors. The team used Pat’s recruiting tag line of “you will learn something; you’ll have some fun and we will feed you well”. The interns had the opportunity to have discussion with Governor Youngkin, former Congressman Davis, Supervisor Herrity, the Red Maverick team, and others. As a result of the capacity of our team, we had comprehensive follow-ups with virtually every single person we spoke to in the field. Consisting of phone calls, written letters, door knocks, and postcards, all with a curated message based on their political affinity and sometimes even a personal detail based on a previous conversation.
Beginning August 1st, the Herrity campaign brought in Camelback Strategies, focused on grassroots campaigns and assisting candidates specifically with their efforts on the doors in the field. The Camelback team’s door universe was focused on targeting different affinities of Republicans and focusing even deeper on low-propensity Republicans who do not normally vote in local elections. They were very successful in garnering support through their micro-targeted and concentrated efforts. With thousands of people committing to vote either early in person or by mail, we saw an astonishing end-all result of Pat winning the early in-person vote by 20 points. An absolutely unheard-of result for a Republican in a D+19 district before this election.
Once in the third and final phase of the field program, getting out the vote, the Herrity team pooled all of its resources into turning out the vote as much as possible. Paid efforts coupled with volunteer efforts all focused on driving voters to the polls in support of Pat. We made sticky notes with the addresses and times for four of the 13 early voting locations, and left them on palm cards in each of the applicable precincts.
We sent final reminder texts to our supporters, last minute digs on our opponent to high propensity hard democrats, endorsement reminders to both sides of the aisle, and a few other text messages in the final 72 hours to solidify our position. What made our GOTV efforts so unique, was that we were not simply telling people “Hey, go vote”, we were telling a story about a long-standing common-sense individual who is fighting to bring balance to a long-standing established machine that is trying to squeeze him out of the conversation.All in all, the Herrity field program was robust, efficient, comprehensive, and effective. In a district with roughly 94,000 registered voters; we knocked over 74,000 doors, made over 46,000 phone calls, sent over 100,000 text messages, and attended hundreds of community events. The Herrity reelection campaign was a testament to the power of grassroots campaigns and the importance of engaging with voters at the local level.
Conclusion
To say that winning a race as a Republican in Fairfax County isn’t easy would be an understatement. Pat and everyone on the team understood from Day One that we were starting at the 1 yard line, and that we needed to perfectly execute a 99 yard drive to win this Election. Early investment in opposition research and polling to hone in on the perfect message and Pat’s history as a powerhouse fundraiser to provide the resources to promote that message were needed to back this powerful win. A hyper focused field program, with individual components for swing voters, low propensity voters, and permanent absentee voters, with aggressive and multifaceted follow up, enabled the campaign to whip votes for Pat – and then hold them through the finish line. Messaging in the mailbox and through digital, with specific messages aimed at specific universes, provided the air support the Herrity campaign needed, to continue to define, in the right terms, Pat to the people that would be voting in this election. A well formulated and well executed game plan, with a couple creative swings along the way, ensured the victory of Fairfax’s last Republican to another four-year term in a year he was one of the few bright spots in Virginia and the only victory in Fairfax County.
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